Task D3.3: Liminal Counterfactuals

What is Task D3.3?

Task D3.3 is part of the "Act" phase in the Viability Canvas methodology, specifically within the "Limit Attention" step (Step D3). This task appears to be labeled "D3.2" in the document, but based on context it's likely meant to be D3.3 (following the regular D3.2 Counterfactuals task). It instructs you to "Identify and evaluate feasible future actions based on changing conditions. Identify currently not possible interventions that could become feasible if certain external conditions change. These liminal counterfactuals have the potential to be realized if specific barriers are removed, such as gaining support from high-level managers. Discuss the context conditions that need improvement and evaluate which of these interventions have a realistic chance of being pursued in the future, allowing for strategic planning and proactive engagement to create enabling conditions."

Purpose of Identifying Liminal Counterfactuals

The purpose of this task is to maintain a strategic vision that extends beyond current constraints while creating pathways to make currently impossible initiatives possible in the future. This serves several important functions:

1. Strategic foresight: Keeping valuable but currently infeasible options visible for future consideration
2. Opportunity preparation: Identifying conditions that would enable important initiatives
3. Proactive condition-changing: Creating plans to deliberately alter the conditions that make valuable initiatives impossible
4. Horizon planning: Building bridges between current possibilities and future aspirations
5. Change sequencing: Understanding which changes might unlock others in the future

By identifying liminal counterfactuals, you create a more dynamic, forward-looking change strategy that doesn't abandon valuable initiatives just because they aren't currently possible.

Understanding Liminal Counterfactuals

In the context of the Viability Canvas, "liminal counterfactuals" exist in a threshold or borderline state—they are:

• Currently impossible under existing conditions (like regular counterfactuals)
• Potentially feasible if specific, identifiable conditions change
• Valuable enough to warrant planning for their eventual implementation
• Worth investing in creating the conditions that would make them possible

These initiatives exist in a liminal (threshold) space between the currently possible and the permanently impossible. They are distinguished from regular counterfactuals by having a plausible path to eventual feasibility.

How to Complete Task D3.3

To identify liminal counterfactuals in your change strategy:

1. Review your identified counterfactuals from Task D3.2:
   • For each counterfactual, ask: "What specific conditions make this impossible?"
   • Determine if these conditions could potentially change within a relevant timeframe
   • Separate truly impossible initiatives from those that are conditionally impossible
2. For each potential liminal counterfactual, identify:
   • Specific blocking conditions (e.g., lack of executive support, missing resources, regulatory barriers)
   • Possible pathways to change those conditions
   • Timeline for when conditions might change
   • Strategic value if implementation became possible
3. Categorize by condition-changing potential:
   • Conditions likely to change naturally over time
   • Conditions that could be deliberately influenced
   • Conditions dependent on external factors beyond influence
   • Conditions requiring significant organizational maturity or capability growth
4. Document each liminal counterfactual with:
   • The initiative description
   • Current blocking conditions
   • Potential pathways to feasibility
   • Strategic value assessment
   • Timeline for reassessment
5. Create action plans for initiatives where conditions can be deliberately influenced.

Example from Canned Tornado

In the Canned Tornado case study, they identified as liminal counterfactuals:

• Automation of certain process steps:
  • Current blocking condition: Insufficient investment budget
  • Pathway to feasibility: Demonstrate ROI from initial improvements to secure additional funding
  • Timeline: Reassess after 6 months of operational improvements show financial results
  • Strategic value: High - would significantly improve quality and throughput
  • Action plan: Document process performance issues, calculate potential ROI, present business case to leadership after initial improvements show results
• Integrated value chain with suppliers:
  • Current blocking condition: Current supplier contracts don't allow for the required integration
  • Pathway to feasibility: Renegotiate contracts at renewal points, develop trust through smaller collaborative initiatives
  • Timeline: Contract renewals coming up in 9-12 months
  • Strategic value: High - would reduce material shortages and improve reliability
  • Action plan: Begin relationship-building with key suppliers, develop integration concept, prepare for contract negotiations

By identifying these liminal counterfactuals, Canned Tornado maintained these valuable initiatives in their strategic vision while creating concrete plans to change the conditions that currently made them impossible.

Strategic Management of Liminal Counterfactuals

Liminal counterfactuals require their own management approach:

1. Condition monitoring: Regularly track the status of blocking conditions
2. Pathfinding: Work to create enabling conditions where possible
3. Horizon planning: Maintain these initiatives in longer-term planning
4. Regular reassessment: Periodically reevaluate whether initiatives have crossed from impossible to possible
5. Preparation: Develop implementation plans that can be activated when conditions change

Organizations should actively maintain a "limbic list" of valuable initiatives that are currently blocked but have identifiable paths to eventual feasibility. This creates a dynamic change strategy that can adapt to evolving conditions and seize opportunities when they emerge.

By distinguishing liminal counterfactuals from both feasible initiatives and permanently impossible ones, the organization creates a more nuanced, strategic approach to change that balances immediate action with future preparation.