Task D5.1: Identify High-potential Counterfactuals

What is Task D5.1?

Task D5.1 is part of the "Act" phase in the Viability Canvas methodology, specifically within the "Hack" step (Step D5). This task instructs you to "Review the Counterfactuals and the Liminal Counterfactuals again and identify candidates that are important enough to tackle even if they are outside my sphere of influence. Check whether the initiative or a small part is suitable for acting as a catalyst."

Purpose of Identifying High-potential Counterfactuals

The purpose of this task is to identify and potentially pursue high-value initiatives that have been classified as "impossible" but might be achievable through unconventional approaches or "hacking." This serves several important functions:

1. Breaking through artificial constraints: Challenging assumptions about what's possible
2. Addressing high-value opportunities: Finding ways to implement changes with exceptional potential
3. Bypassing formal limitations: Creating pathways around organizational barriers
4. Pioneering new approaches: Demonstrating possibilities that formal processes might reject
5. Building momentum for difficult changes: Creating examples that can influence formal decision-makers

By identifying high-potential counterfactuals, you create opportunities to achieve valuable changes that might otherwise be abandoned due to formal constraints.

Understanding High-potential Counterfactuals

In the context of the Viability Canvas, "high-potential counterfactuals" are initiatives that:

• Have been classified as counterfactual (impossible under current conditions)
• Offer exceptional value if they could be implemented
• Might be achievable in part or in whole through unconventional means
• Are worth the risk associated with working outside formal channels
• Could potentially serve as catalysts for broader change if successful

These initiatives exist outside your formal sphere of influence but are too valuable to simply abandon. They are candidates for "hacking" approaches that work around formal limitations or constraints.

How to Complete Task D5.1

To identify high-potential counterfactuals:

1. Review your counterfactuals and liminal counterfactuals from Steps D3.2 and D3.3:
   • Reevaluate the potential value of each initiative if it could be implemented
   • Consider which ones, if successful, would have the most significant positive impact
   • Look for initiatives that address core organizational dysfunctions
2. For each high-value counterfactual, assess:
   • Could a smaller version or component of this initiative be implemented?
   • Are there unofficial pathways to advance this initiative?
   • Could it be reframed or repositioned to bypass constraints?
   • Would the benefits justify the risks of pursuing it informally?
   • Could it serve as a demonstration or catalyst for formal adoption later?
3. Evaluate the catalytic potential of each candidate:
   • Would success create momentum for broader adoption?
   • Would it challenge limiting assumptions or beliefs?
   • Could it demonstrate possibilities that formal processes reject?
   • Would it influence key stakeholders to reconsider formal constraints?
4. Select candidates for potential hacking approaches based on:
   • Potential value if successful
   • Feasibility of implementing through unofficial means
   • Catalytic potential for broader change
   • Acceptable level of risk given potential benefits
5. Document selected initiatives with:
   • The core value proposition
   • Current barriers or constraints
   • Potential "hack" approaches
   • Expected benefits and catalytic effects
   • Risks and mitigation strategies

Example from Canned Tornado

In the Canned Tornado case study, they identified as high-potential counterfactuals:

• Early involvement of production employees in R&D projects:
  • Original constraint: Organizational boundaries between R&D and production
  • High value: Would significantly improve product manufacturability and reduce production problems
  • Hack potential: Informal collaboration between receptive R&D engineers and production staff
  • Catalytic potential: Could demonstrate value of cross-functional collaboration and influence formal process changes
• "Skunk works" projects for process innovations:
  • Original constraint: No formal budget or authority for production process innovation
  • High value: Could generate significant efficiency improvements
  • Hack potential: Small-scale experiments using available resources, conducted during less busy periods
  • Catalytic potential: Successful improvements could justify formal investment in process innovation

By identifying these high-potential counterfactuals, Canned Tornado created opportunities to pursue valuable changes despite formal constraints, with the potential to demonstrate benefits that could later justify formal adoption.

Strategies for Identifying the Best Candidates

When evaluating counterfactuals for potential hacking approaches, consider these strategic factors:

1. Value concentration: Look for initiatives where significant value might be achieved even with partial implementation
2. Decomposability: Identify counterfactuals that can be broken into smaller components, some of which might be implementable
3. Demonstration potential: Prioritize initiatives where small-scale success would make a compelling case for broader adoption
4. Alignment with direction: Focus on counterfactuals that strongly support your directional statement from D1.1
5. Risk-reward balance: Consider the potential consequences of working outside formal channels relative to the benefits
6. Sponsor potential: Look for initiatives that might attract support from influential stakeholders if early results are promising

By applying these criteria, you can identify high-potential counterfactuals that are worth pursuing through unconventional means, creating opportunities for breakthrough change despite formal constraints.