Chapter 14 - Navigate by Riding the Flow

Executive Overview: Transformation doesn't require heroic force against resistant systems—it requires finding leverage points where small efforts produce large effects. This chapter provides four specific strategic leverage points for creating and sustaining momentum while building adaptive capabilities. Like the Tautai who reads ocean currents to find flows that carry the canoe forward with minimal effort, adaptive leaders identify and exploit the natural energy gradients in their organizational systems.

The Estuarine Principle

An estuary is where river meets sea—a dynamic environment of multiple flows, shifting tides, and constant change. Some features are stable as granite cliffs; others shift constantly like sandbanks and currents.

Organizations are estuarine systems. They contain:

• Fixed elements: Culture, history, core capabilities, established relationships
• Fluid elements: Market conditions, competitive dynamics, emerging opportunities
• Energy gradients: Natural flows where change happens more easily

The estuarine principle: Navigate change by reading the system's energy landscape, finding paths of least resistance while respecting immovable constraints.

This isn't about avoiding difficulty—it's about directing effort where it will have the greatest effect.

The Four Leverage Points

Four leverage points offer the greatest return on transformation effort:

Leverage Point 1: Oblique Goals—Direction Over Destination

Traditional change management sets fixed goals and measures progress against them. In complex systems, this approach often fails because:

• Fixed goals become obsolete as conditions change
• Goal rigidity prevents exploitation of unexpected opportunities
• Measurement against goals can obscure actual value creation

The oblique approach: Set clear direction rather than fixed destinations. Know which way is "better" without specifying exactly where "better" ends.

Characteristics of oblique goals:

• Define direction of improvement, not specific targets
• Allow path discovery through action
• Enable opportunistic response to emergent possibilities
• Maintain alignment without creating rigidity

Implementing oblique goals:

Instead of: "Increase market share by 5%" Try: "Move toward greater customer value creation"

Instead of: "Launch three new products this year" Try: "Move toward stronger innovation capability"

Instead of: "Reduce costs by 10%" Try: "Move toward greater operational efficiency and effectiveness"

The direction remains constant; the path adapts to what you learn along the way.

Leverage Point 2: Energy Gradients—Path of Least Resistance

Every system has energy gradients—areas where change requires less effort and areas where change requires enormous force. Effective transformation reads these gradients and works with them.

High energy (hard to change):

• Deep cultural assumptions
• Core identity elements
• Established power structures
• Fundamental business models

Low energy (easier to change):

• Processes and procedures
• Communication patterns
• Team structures
• Information flows

Applying the energy gradient principle:

1. Map your system's energy landscape. Where does change happen easily? Where does it meet stubborn resistance?
2. Start where energy is low. Build momentum with changes that require less force. Success creates energy for harder changes.
3. Use low-energy changes to influence high-energy elements. Changes in processes and information flows can eventually shift culture and power structures.
4. Respect immovable constraints. Some elements won't change regardless of effort. Navigate around them rather than through them.

Leverage Point 3: Scaffolding Constraints—Stability as Anchor

Paradoxically, effective change requires stable anchor points. Constraints aren't always obstacles—they can be scaffolding that enables transformation.

Scaffolding constraints provide:

• Psychological safety: People need something stable to hold onto during change
• Coordination: Shared constraints enable aligned action
• Focus: Boundaries direct energy toward productive channels
• Identity continuity: Connection to "who we are" through transformation

Types of scaffolding constraints:

Purpose constraints: What we exist to do remains constant even as how we do it evolves.

Values constraints: Core principles that guide behavior during uncertainty.

Relationship constraints: Key partnerships and commitments that provide stability.

Capability constraints: Core competencies that anchor identity during transformation.

Applying scaffolding constraints:

1. Identify your anchors. What elements of your organization should remain stable during change?
2. Make anchors explicit. People need to know what's not changing as much as what is.
3. Use anchors for navigation. When uncertainty peaks, refer back to stable purpose and values.
4. Protect anchors deliberately. Don't accidentally erode what provides stability.

Leverage Point 4: Liminal Boundaries—The Edge of Change

Liminal boundaries mark the edge of what's currently changeable in your system. These boundaries aren't fixed—they can be expanded through careful work.

Characteristics of liminal boundaries:

• Neither fully stable nor fully fluid
• Responsive to gentle pressure over time
• Often defined by unexamined assumptions
• Expansion creates new possibility space

Working with liminal boundaries:

Identify the boundaries. What do people assume "can't change"? Which assumptions are actually untested?

Test boundaries gently. Small experiments reveal whether boundaries are real constraints or merely perceived ones.

Expand gradually. Successful boundary tests create new norms. What was impossible becomes possible.

Celebrate boundary expansion. Make visible when "we've never done that" becomes "we did that."

The Estuarine Mapping Process

Translate the four leverage points into action through Estuarine Mapping:

Step 1: Map the Energy-Time Grid

For key elements of your organization or initiative, place them on a two-dimensional grid:

Vertical axis: Energy required to change

• High energy: Requires enormous effort, unlikely to change
• Low energy: Changes relatively easily

Horizontal axis: Time required to change

• Short time: Can change quickly once effort is applied
• Long time: Changes slowly regardless of effort

Step 2: Identify Leverage Zones

Zone 1 (Low energy, Short time): Quick wins—start here Zone 2 (Low energy, Long time): Patient cultivation—plant seeds Zone 3 (High energy, Short time): Concentrated force—use sparingly Zone 4 (High energy, Long time): Constraints—work around

Step 3: Design Micro-Nudges

For elements in accessible zones, design small interventions that:

• Require minimal effort
• Create visible movement
• Build momentum for larger changes
• Connect to oblique goals

Step 4: Plan Parallel Experiments

Rather than sequential transformation stages:

• Launch multiple small experiments simultaneously
• Learn from varied attempts
• Scale what works; abandon what doesn't
• Maintain portfolio of transformation initiatives

Step 5: Monitor and Adapt

• Track movement across the energy-time grid
• Note boundary expansions
• Adjust effort allocation based on results
• Evolve oblique goals based on learning

Creating and Sustaining Momentum

The greatest challenge in transformation isn't starting—it's sustaining momentum through the inevitable difficulties.

Momentum Principles

Small wins compound. Each small success creates energy for the next effort. Design for early visible wins.

Stories spread. Success stories travel through organizations faster than strategic communications. Capture and share transformation narratives.

Resistance diminishes with motion. Initial resistance often reflects uncertainty more than opposition. Once change begins, resistance frequently decreases.

Momentum attracts resources. Success attracts attention, support, and resources. Failure repels them. Prioritize visible progress.

Momentum Killers

Avoid these momentum destroyers:

• Big bang launches: Large announced initiatives create high expectations and high resistance
• Perfectionism: Waiting for perfect plans prevents learning from action
• Centralized control: Momentum requires distributed energy; central control bottlenecks it
• Blame when experiments fail: Failure punishment stops experimentation and thus stops learning
• Changing direction too often: Strategic thrashing dissipates accumulated momentum

Core Concepts

Key Takeaways

1. Direction matters more than destination. Oblique goals maintain alignment while enabling adaptive paths.
2. Work with energy gradients, not against them. Find where change happens easily and start there.
3. Some constraints are scaffolding. Stability enables change by providing anchors during transformation.
4. Boundaries are expandable. What seems unchangeable often merely reflects untested assumptions.
5. Momentum is the scarcest resource. Small wins compound; protect and build momentum deliberately.

Practical Applications

Monday Morning Actions

1. Energy Gradient Audit: Pick one change initiative. Map its elements on an energy-time grid. Are you spending effort in high-energy zones when low-energy opportunities exist?
2. Identify Your Scaffolding: What should remain stable during your current transformation? Have you made this explicit to your team?
3. Test One Boundary: What assumption about "what can't change" would you most like to test? Design a small, safe experiment to probe that boundary.
4. Oblique Goal Reframe: Take one fixed numeric goal and reframe it as a direction. What does this change about how you pursue it?

Estuarine Mapping Workshop

Preparation (1 hour before):

• Identify the system or initiative to map
• Gather cross-functional participants (4-8 people)
• Prepare large grid template (energy vs. time)

Workshop Process (2-3 hours):

Phase 1: Element Identification (30 min)

• List all significant elements of the system
• Include structures, processes, relationships, capabilities, assumptions

Phase 2: Grid Placement (45 min)

• Place each element on the energy-time grid
• Discuss and negotiate placements
• Note disagreements—they reveal important assumptions

Phase 3: Leverage Analysis (30 min)

• Identify Zone 1 (quick wins) opportunities
• Note Zone 4 (constraints) to work around
• Find connections between zones

Phase 4: Intervention Design (45 min)

• Design micro-nudges for Zone 1 elements
• Plan patient cultivation for Zone 2
• Identify boundary tests to attempt

Phase 5: Action Planning (30 min)

• Assign ownership for interventions
• Set review dates
• Define success indicators

Follow-up:

• Weekly check-ins on experiment progress
• Monthly mapping updates
• Quarterly strategic review of overall movement

Related Concepts

• Chapter 3: The Structured Network Organization - Organizational structures that enable flow-based navigation
• Chapter 6: Driving Improvement - Strategic intent as scaffolding constraint for adaptive strategy
• Chapter 13: Converting Insight into Action - Flywheel momentum for insight-action cycles
• Chapter 15: Scanning the Adaptive Space - Connecting exploration and execution flows
• Chapter 16: Master an Uncertain Future - Action plan for creating transformation momentum